El mercado en Mejico no se queda atras

[conciencia]

ALCON,

El Presidente FOX ha hecho lo que ningun Presidente pude hacer en dos decadas. Fijense lo que un Liderazgo nuevo hace, hummmmmmmmm.

The twelve-month-forward growth rate for the Mexican universe is 28% in February. The Mexican government recently released a summary of its economic situation in 2000. The economy grew 6.9% in real terms for the year, the fastest rate in almost two decades. The country's service industry accounted for 67.3% of last year's GDP. The January trade deficit narrowed for the first time in three months as consumer spending slowed, reducing demand for imported goods. Still, the trade gap could grow during 2001 as the US economy slows, reducing demand for Mexican exports. Mexican consumer prices fell in the first 2 weeks of February from the same period the previous month. This drop might help the central bank achieve its goal of keeping inflation under control at an annual rate of 6.5% this year. Economists predict the economy will grow about 3.8% in 2001.

The forecasted 12-month-forward growth rate is up 5 index points this month, with nothing attributable to time shift. Because of the US economic slowdown, Mexico's auto parts and textiles industries are likely to begin laying off workers for the first time in 17 years. The Capital Goods sector has seen the largest upward revisions, gaining 11 index points this month. The sector is now expected to grow 37% over the next 12 months. In this sector, Cemex gained 15 index points and is now slated for 25% growth. On the other hand, the Transportation sector lost 3 index points this month (with none attributable to time shift). The growth rate for this sector is expected to be 39% in February. Here, Cintra lost 5 index points to finish the month with expected annual growth rate of 36%.

Net revisions for the Mexican universe are -5.7% for FY1, down from last month, and -1.0% for FY2, an improvement over January's figure of -3.8%. Once again, the Basic Industries sector had large negative revisions for both FY1 and FY2. Also, the Consumer Non-Durables sector had net revisions of -4.4% in FY1 and -5.9% in FY2. In this sector, Bimbo, a baked goods company, is facing tough competition. As a result, 3 of the 11 analysts covering Bimbo lowered FY1 estimates this month. The Transportaion sector had net upward revisions of 20% for FY1, as estimates for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sul were up considerably. An increase in commercial revenue per passenger is expected.

The 12-month-forward P/E ratio for Mexico this month is 9.6, a slight change from last month's 9.2. The Consumer Services sector recorded the highest forward P/E ratio, trading at 14.4 times estimated earnings in February. In this sector, Soriana is trading at 7.6 times 2001 estimates and the 12-month-forward P/E ratio for Corvi changed from 4.7 in January to 5.4 this month as the share price increased by 13.4%. The Consumer Durables sector is trading at 0.2 times estimated. Here, Dina's share price declined by 7 points, making the P/E ratio drop at 0.2.