Vaguada increases flood and thunderstorm risk in Puerto Rico
A surface trough and approaching mid-level low will bring showers, isolated thunderstorms and elevated flood risk to parts of the island through at least mid-next week.
The short version
- Metro Puerto Rico reports a surface trough and east-northeast winds will bring variable weather with morning showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms mainly over the interior and southwest
- El Vocero reports the National Weather Service says a mid- and upper-level low will increase atmospheric instability and the potential for flooding and lightning through at least mid-next week
- Both outlets forecast a 60 percent chance of rain Saturday with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch and a low marine current risk continuing through early Tuesday
- Sunday is expected to bring a 50 percent chance of rain with possible thunderstorms after 3 p.m. and a heat index up to 102 °F
Current forecast
Puerto Rico will experience variable weather conditions on Saturday, Oct. 10, due to a surface trough and east-northeast winds carrying moisture, Metro Puerto Rico reported. Morning showers are likely before 9 a.m., followed by probable showers and isolated thunderstorms between 9 a.m. and noon, with scattered showers in the afternoon mainly over the interior and southwest. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a high near 89 °F and winds from the east-northeast at 10 to 13 mph. The chance of rain is 60 percent with general accumulations between a quarter and half an inch.
A mid- and upper-level low pressure system will approach the region between Saturday night and Sunday morning, increasing atmospheric instability and the potential for showers, thunderstorms, flooding and lightning at least until mid-next week, according to both Metro Puerto Rico and El Vocero. The flood risk will fluctuate between limited and elevated, with the greatest threat over the interior and southwest.
Weekend outlook
Saturday night will continue with scattered showers, mostly cloudy skies and a low near 77 °F. Winds will be from the east-southeast at 8 to 11 mph with a 50 percent chance of rain and additional accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch, Metro Puerto Rico said.
On Sunday, scattered showers are expected with a chance of thunderstorms after 3 p.m. Skies will be partly sunny with a high near 90 °F and heat index up to 102 °F. Winds will be from the east at 6 to 16 mph with gusts to 23 mph. The chance of rain is 50 percent with forecasted accumulations between half and three-quarters of an inch, the outlet added.
Marine conditions
A low risk of rip currents will continue along the coasts at least until the early hours of Tuesday, both outlets reported. El Vocero noted that dangerous currents can still form near piers, jetties and reefs even when the overall risk is low. Wave heights are forecast around three feet with east winds near 10 mph. Authorities recommend checking beach conditions and preferring lifeguard-protected beaches before entering the water.
Where the sources differ
Metro Puerto Rico and El Vocero largely agree on the overall pattern, attributing it to a surface trough, east-northeast winds and an approaching mid- and upper-level low that will increase instability and flood risk through mid-next week. Metro provides more detailed hourly timing, temperature numbers (89 °F high Saturday, 77 °F low) and rainfall accumulation ranges, while El Vocero gives a slightly lower high of 86 °F, mentions possible lines of showers affecting the east region, and emphasizes the National Weather Service as the source. Both note no active watches, warnings or advisories are in effect.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not specify expected rainfall totals beyond Saturday and Sunday, whether any flash flood watches are anticipated, the precise areas within the interior and southwest at highest risk, or what actions government agencies or municipalities are taking to prepare for possible flooding. They also do not address potential impacts on travel, schools or outdoor events.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting Vaguada aumenta el riesgo de inundaciones y tronadas
- Reporting Vaguada favorecerá aguaceros y tronadas esta tarde en Puerto Rico
How we checked this
Metro Puerto Rico and El Vocero both covered the forecast based on National Weather Service information. Details on exact temperatures, timing and rainfall amounts rest primarily on Metro Puerto Rico while El Vocero provided additional emphasis on marine safety near structures.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.