Elevated flood risk and high heat indices forecast for western Puerto Rico
The National Weather Service warned of possible heavy afternoon showers in the southwest on Thursday while heat indices could reach 107°F in areas with clear skies.
The short version
- NotiCel reported an elevated risk of flooding in southwestern Puerto Rico due to afternoon showers on Thursday
- Heat indices may reach 102 to 107 degrees Fahrenheit after 10 a.m. in places with clear skies according to NotiCel
- A high pressure system over the western Atlantic will bring east-northeast winds carrying pockets of moisture
- Scattered showers expected in the west this afternoon with rainfall accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
Forecast for Thursday
The National Weather Service informed NotiCel that an elevated risk of flooding exists in the southwest of Puerto Rico because of showers that could develop in the afternoon of Thursday, Oct. 15. A high pressure system located over the western Atlantic will maintain east and east-northeast winds over the region, transporting small areas of moisture that will favor passing showers in the morning, mainly in wind-exposed sectors. NotiCel reported
From midday, solar heating, sea breezes and the effect of the mountains will favor the formation of showers over the western interior and the municipalities of southwestern Puerto Rico. Conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be less favorable for the development of strong thunderstorms because the air will be warmer and more stable aloft, limiting cloud growth. Winds will continue from the east and east-northeast at 12 to 17 mph at lower levels. NotiCel said today will bring scattered showers mainly before noon followed by mostly sunny conditions, with a high near 88°F, winds from the east-northeast at 9 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, and a 50 percent chance of rain with accumulations between a quarter and half an inch.
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Nighttime and marine conditions
NotiCel reported that Thursday night will bring scattered showers mainly after 9 p.m., with partly cloudy skies, a low near 79°F, east winds at 6 to 9 mph and a 50 percent chance of rain. A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents will continue at beaches north of Puerto Rico and in Culebra.
Earlier Primera Hora coverage on Oct. 13 noted that a tropical wave passing south of the island would increase humidity between Wednesday and Thursday and keep moisture elevated through Saturday, with thunderstorms expected in the afternoons. The outlet indicated sufficient moisture for afternoon showers to develop over the interior of the country.
Where the sources differ
NotiCel on Oct. 15 focused on the forecast for that same day, citing the National Weather Service for elevated flood risk in the southwest, heat indices of 102-107°F, and limited thunderstorm potential due to stable upper air. Primera Hora on Oct. 13 described a multi-day pattern with a tropical wave increasing humidity from Wednesday through Saturday and expecting thunderstorms in the afternoons. The sources agree on afternoon moisture and showers in the interior and west but differ on the exact time frame and on whether strong thunderstorms are likely; NotiCel said upper-level conditions would limit them while Primera Hora anticipated thunderstorms.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not specify expected rainfall totals beyond the quarter to half inch mentioned for Thursday, nor do they detail which specific southwestern municipalities face the highest flood risk. No information is given on any flash flood watches or warnings in effect, expected impacts on roads or communities, or actions recommended by local officials. The articles also do not address how long the elevated heat indices are forecast to persist beyond Thursday morning.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting Se espera hoy más lluvia para el oeste esta tarde
- Reporting La lluvia en el oeste se repetirá mañana
How we checked this
NotiCel provided the most recent and detailed forecast for Thursday citing the National Weather Service while Primera Hora offered earlier context on the tropical wave and multi-day humidity increase. Details on heat, flood risk and upper-level stability rest solely on the NotiCel article.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.