IMF projects 0.1% contraction for Puerto Rico in 2026
The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slight economic decline this year followed by modest growth in 2027, lagging behind the United States and Latin America.
File photoThe short version
- El Vocero reported the IMF projects Puerto Rico's economy will contract 0.1% in 2026 after 0.3% growth in 2025 and before 1% growth in 2027
- El Vocero reported inflation is seen rising from 3.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027 while unemployment falls from 5.4% to 5.3%
- Sin Comillas reported the same 0.1% contraction for 2026 and noted it would be the first shrinkage since the 2020 pandemic
- El Vocero reported Puerto Rico's projected performance trails the US at 2.3% growth, North America at 2.2% and Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3%
Projections released
The International Monetary Fund projects that Puerto Rico's economy will contract by 0.1% in 2026, according to its October economic outlook for the Western Hemisphere reported by El Vocero. El Vocero reported the island grew 0.3% in 2025 and is expected to expand by 1% in 2027. The figures are part of the IMF's World Economic Outlook and use data supplied by the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics.
Sin Comillas reported the 0.1% contraction for 2026, noting it would be the first shrinkage since the 2020 pandemic. Sin Comillas reported inflation at 3.1% in 2026 rising to 3.6% in 2027, with unemployment at 5.4% falling to 5.3%.
Also on PuertoRico.com: Cost of living in Puerto Rico
Comparisons with other economies
El Vocero reported the projection places Puerto Rico well below the United States, which is forecast to grow 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Canada is seen at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, while Mexico is projected at 1.5% and then 1.8%. North America as a whole would grow 2.2% in 2026.
El Vocero reported Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to expand 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The global economy is expected to grow 3.1% in 2026. Puerto Rico is one of only three economies in the Western Hemisphere table shown with a contraction in 2026, along with Bolivia at minus 3% and Haiti at minus 1.7%.
Where the sources differ
Both El Vocero and Sin Comillas agree that the IMF projects a 0.1% contraction for Puerto Rico in 2026, 3.1% inflation that year rising to 3.6% in 2027, and unemployment of 5.4% falling to 5.3%. El Vocero states the IMF expects 0.3% growth in 2025 and 1% growth in 2027. Sin Comillas reports 0.3% growth in 2025 but states 0.1% growth for 2027 in one sentence. El Vocero provides extensive regional comparisons showing Puerto Rico lagging the United States, North America and Latin America and the Caribbean; Sin Comillas notes only that the US is seen growing 2.3% both years by the IMF and that the Junta de Planificación has issued its own lower forecasts on a fiscal-year basis.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not state what specific factors the IMF attributes to the projected 0.1% contraction in 2026. They do not indicate whether the Junta de Planificación or the Puerto Rico government have commented on the IMF outlook. The sources provide no updated reaction from local economists or business groups, nor do they detail what policy measures if any are under discussion in response to the forecast.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting FMI proyecta contracción de 0.1% para Puerto Rico en 2026, frente a crecimiento de 2.3% en Estados Unidos
- Reporting El FMI proyecta que la economía de PR se contraerá 0.1% este año
How we checked this
El Vocero published the most detailed account drawing directly from the IMF's October Western Hemisphere projections and World Economic Outlook. Sin Comillas reported the main 2026 contraction figure and the first-since-pandemic characterization. The 2027 growth rate is the point of clear numerical conflict between the two outlets.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.