Intense rains and flood risk forecast for Puerto Rico
The National Weather Service warns of strong showers, thunderstorms and possible urban and river flooding due to high moisture and atmospheric instability.
File photoThe short version
- Primera Hora reported that intense rains and flood risk will mark the weather on Tuesday with strong showers and thunderstorms especially in the interior and west
- El Vocero reported a tropical wave will increase the possibility of strong rains and thunderstorms on Wednesday with moderate flood risk where rains persist
- El Vocero indicated the wave will bring several days of frequent showers thunderstorms and flood risk extending until Thursday
- Primera Hora reported rainfall accumulations of 1.50 to 2.50 inches possible with highest amounts in the west
Forecast details
The National Weather Service in San Juan warned that favorable conditions for strong showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon on Tuesday due to abundant atmospheric moisture and instability from an upper-level low pressure system southwest of the region. Primera Hora reported
El Vocero reported that the passage of a tropical wave over Puerto Rico will increase this Wednesday the possibility of strong rains and thunderstorms with risk of flooding in sectors that receive persistent showers. The agency said during the early morning hours associated moisture had already caused showers over the eastern half of Puerto Rico. El Vocero reported
Risks and impacts
Primera Hora reported that the rains could cause urban and stream flooding as well as rapid rises in river levels particularly in western municipalities where soils remain highly saturated. Models project accumulations between 1.50 and 2.50 inches with the highest values in the west. Weak steering winds may allow some showers to move slowly or remain over the same area increasing flood risk. Primera Hora reported
El Vocero reported that where recurrent rains and strong showers occur the risk of flooding will be moderate in urban zones roads small streams and runoff areas. There is also a low possibility of isolated flash flooding. The wave is expected to move away between late Wednesday and Thursday but residual moisture will keep conditions favorable for additional precipitation through Thursday. El Vocero reported
Additional hazards
Primera Hora reported that the combination of cooler than normal temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere and unstable conditions could generate strong thunderstorms with wind gusts frequent lightning and the possibility of small hail. Coastal and urban high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees and briefly over 105 degrees in parts of the north and west. No heat advisory is expected. Primera Hora reported
El Vocero reported a moderate risk of rip currents on north east and south facing beaches of Puerto Rico as well as Vieques and Culebra on Wednesday with lightning danger from thunderstorms. Seas are expected to be choppy with locally higher waves near showers and thunderstorms. Improvement is forecast for Friday with drier air although a return to unstable conditions with strong rains is possible early next week. El Vocero reported
Where the sources differ
The sources agree that the National Weather Service forecasts strong showers thunderstorms and flood risk due to high moisture but differ on timing and cause. Primera Hora published on Oct. 13 focuses on Tuesday activity from an upper-level low pressure system with heaviest rain in the interior and west. El Vocero articles published on Oct. 6 and 7 describe a tropical wave bringing increasing activity from Tuesday night with main impacts and several days of rain on Wednesday extending into Thursday before improving Friday. Primera Hora gives specific rainfall amounts while the El Vocero reports emphasize moderate flood risk and rip current hazards.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not state observed rainfall totals or actual flooding occurrences. They provide no specific list of municipalities at highest risk beyond general references to the west interior and urban areas. No information is given on whether any watches or warnings have been issued or on expected impacts to infrastructure or agriculture.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting Lluvias intensas y riesgo de inundaciones marcarán el tiempo este martes en Puerto Rico
- Reporting Onda tropical eleva riesgo de lluvias e inundaciones en Puerto Rico
- Reporting Onda tropical amenaza con dejar varios días de fuertes lluvias en Puerto Rico
How we checked this
Primera Hora reported the Tuesday forecast details including rainfall amounts and heat index values. Both El Vocero articles reported the tropical wave impacts and multi-day outlook. The specific rainfall accumulation range rests solely on the Primera Hora report.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.