More than 2 million Puerto Ricans live in districts key to U.S. midterm elections
An analysis by the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo identified 59 districts in five states where Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino group and that will have close contests, though experts cited low voter turnout as a limiting factor.
The short version
- Centro de Periodismo Investigativo reports that 2,386,911 Puerto Ricans live in 59 districts with close contests across Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Ohio where they are the largest Latino group
- Centro de Periodismo Investigativo reports that of those districts 32 are held by Republicans and 27 by Democrats
- Centro de Periodismo Investigativo reports low voter turnout among Puerto Ricans may dilute their potential political force in the Nov. 3 midterms
- Carlos Vargas Ramos told the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo that structural differences between Puerto Rico's electoral calendar and the frequent U.S. elections contribute to lower participation
Puerto Ricans in competitive districts
More than 2 million Puerto Ricans reside in 59 congressional districts across five states that will have close contests in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to an analysis by the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo. The analysis, based on 2024 U.S. Census American Community Survey data, found that Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino group in those districts located in Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and Ohio. Centro de Periodismo Investigativo published the analysis on Oct. 14.
Of the 59 districts 32 are represented by Republicans and 27 by Democrats according to the same analysis. In Ohio, which is one of the states, there are 145,627 Puerto Ricans, making them the second-largest Latino group after Mexicans, the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo reported. The total figure of 2,386,911 includes those not yet old enough to vote. Sin Comillas also carried the report.
Concerns over voter participation
The potential political influence of Puerto Ricans in those districts could be diluted if the low participation seen in previous elections is repeated, several experts interviewed by the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo agreed. In general, voter turnout is lower in midterm elections than in presidential ones, a trend that also applies to Latinos, according to a Pew Research Center study cited in the report.
Carlos Vargas Ramos, a political scientist and director of public policy at the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College in New York, told the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo that there are "diferencias estructurales significativas" that influence low electoral participation among Puerto Ricans. He noted that elections in Puerto Rico occur every four years while the U.S. has elections in cycles for president, Congress, state offices and municipalities. Elia Burgos, a lawyer who worked as Bilingual Community Outreach Coordinator for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections from 2018 to 2023, said participation has always been very low, with some majority-Latino districts in Cleveland having less than 2 percent turnout.
Where the sources differ
The two sources are essentially the same investigative report by Joel Cintrón Arbasetti for the Centro de Periodismo Investigativo, with Sin Comillas republishing it. Both agree on the 2,386,911 figure, the 59 districts where Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino group, the five states, the 32 Republican and 27 Democratic breakdown, the Ohio population of 145,627, and the concerns about low turnout expressed by experts including Carlos Vargas Ramos and Elia Burgos. There are no substantive differences between them.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not provide turnout figures from prior midterm elections specifically for Puerto Ricans in the 59 districts, do not name the congressional candidates or incumbents in those districts, do not estimate how many of the 2.3 million are eligible and registered to vote, and do not detail specific outreach efforts or predictions for the Nov. 3 results.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting Más de dos millones de puertorriqueños podrían ser clave en las elecciones de medio término en Estados Unidos
- Reporting Más de dos millones de puertorriqueños podrían ser clave en las elecciones de medio término en Estados Unidos
How we checked this
The Centro de Periodismo Investigativo produced the original analysis and interviews that Sin Comillas republished on the same day. All figures, the expert comments from Vargas Ramos and Burgos, and the description of the Cleveland neighborhood rest on the single investigative report.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.