Unstable weather pattern to bring heat, showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico
The National Weather Service forecasts mostly cloudy skies with a high near 91°F and heat index up to 105°F on Monday, Oct. 12, along with periods of showers and possible thunder.
File photoThe short version
- NotiCel reports an unstable pattern due to a mid- to upper-level low will produce showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the morning, night and over the interior and northwest during the afternoon
- According to NotiCel a 60 percent chance of rain is expected with accumulations between a quarter and half an inch on Monday
- NotiCel states winds will be from the east at 7 to 15 mph with gusts to 21 mph and a low risk of rip currents along the coasts
- The National Weather Service warns of periods of more intense heat between late morning and afternoon despite limited overall heat risk
Monday forecast for Columbus Day
Puerto Rico will experience an unstable weather pattern on Monday, Oct. 12, according to NotiCel. A low-pressure system in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will continue moving over the region, producing showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The island will be mostly cloudy with a high temperature near 91°F and a heat index reaching up to 105°F. East winds will blow at 7 to 15 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. The probability of rain is 60 percent, with expected accumulations between one-quarter and one-half inch. Showers are likely before 9 a.m., followed by scattered showers through midday and scattered showers and thunderstorms after midday. NotiCel reported.
East-southeast winds will carry passing showers and isolated thunderstorms to nearby waters and windward sectors, mainly during the morning and overnight hours. Solar heating, sea breezes and terrain effects will favor development of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and northwest during the afternoon. Bands of showers may also form in the lee of the smaller islands and El Yunque, potentially affecting eastern sectors.
Night and Tuesday outlook
Isolated showers are expected overnight Monday with partly cloudy skies and a low near 78°F. Winds will be lighter from the east-southeast at 5 to 8 mph and the rain chance drops to 20 percent, NotiCel said.
On Tuesday the pattern continues with scattered showers initially, becoming more probable with a chance of thunderstorms after midday. Cloud cover will increase, with a high near 88°F and heat index up to 102°F. East-northeast winds will be 8 to 11 mph. The probability of rain rises to 70 percent with accumulations of one-half to three-quarters of an inch, though higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms persist. NotiCel reported.
Where the sources differ
The two sources describe weather on different days. NotiCel details the forecast for Monday, Oct. 12, including an unstable pattern with specific rain probabilities, accumulations, temperatures and wind speeds. El Nuevo Día reports on conditions for the previous Friday, Oct. 9, quoting meteorologist Glorianne Rivera on passing morning showers in the east, localized afternoon activity in the interior, west and southwest, slightly lower humidity and lower marine risks. The sources do not conflict but cover separate forecast periods.
What the reports do not say
The reports do not specify expected rainfall totals beyond Monday or provide details on potential impacts such as flooding, road conditions or disruptions to outdoor Columbus Day activities. No information is given on lightning risk levels, exact locations most prone to heavy downpours on Monday or any advisories beyond the general heat and marine statements.
Sources
Every link below was opened and checked when this story was published. Official means a government body, agency or the organization itself; Reporting means a news outlet.
- Reporting Patrón inestable del tiempo pruducirá calor, aguaceros y tronadas
- Reporting Calor y aguaceros pasajeros marcarán el tiempo este viernes en Puerto Rico
How we checked this
NotiCel provided the primary forecast details for Monday, Oct. 12, including all temperature, wind, rain probability and accumulation figures. El Nuevo Día was used only to note that it addressed a different day earlier in the week and is not part of the current outlook. All information rests on the National Weather Service data cited by NotiCel.
Compiled by the PuertoRico.com News Desk from the reports and statements listed above, and checked against them before publishing. It does not include original interviews. Spot an error? Email support@puertorico.com with a link to this story.